Why this call

Iran are a significantly stronger team than New Zealand at the international level, ranked around 20-30 places higher in FIFA rankings, and boast quality players like Mehdi Taremi (Inter Milan), Alireza Jahanbakhsh, and Saman Ghoddos playing at European club level. New Zealand qualified through the OFC playoff and their squad, while containing Chris Wood as a dangerous striker, is largely made up of players from lower European leagues and domestic football. Iran are tactically organized under Ghalenoei and have World Cup experience from 2022, where they were competitive. No head-to-head data is available but Iran's overall quality edge makes them clear favorites. Iran's defensive solidity suggests a low-scoring game with a clean sheet likely, hence under 2.5 goals is the lean, though confidence is moderate given tournament unpredictability.